what’s included
Each section below is its own reference file.
Overview & EDA
read →shape, dtypes, duplicates, describe, value counts — problems named, not treated
Group leakage check
a repeating entity ID inflates every metric under a random split
Univariate pass
histogram-boxplot and bar plot per variable, target included, no-information baseline stated
Bivariate pass
heatmap first, then target relationships; a null result stated as confidently as a strong one
Section summary block
strong predictors and weak relationships, each carrying its number
Preparation & leakage
read →drop, encode, split, then treat — reversing the last two invalidates every metric
Dropping variables
only with a stated reason; a weak bivariate gap is not grounds
Encoding
dummies by default; ordinal and high-cardinality columns get a decision, not a default
The split
stratified holdout, grouped where an entity repeats, chronological for a series
Missing values & outliers
options and costs presented, parameters learned on train only
The leakage rule
anything that learns a number from the data is fit on train alone
Fork — regression & classification
read →RMSE, MAE, R², adjusted R², MAPE, with three silent-failure guards
Classification metrics
accuracy, precision, recall, F1, ROC-AUC, all read against class balance
Choosing the tuning metric
the cost of a false negative against a false positive, asked not assumed
Train and test, always
a test figure alone hides overfitting; the gap between them is the finding
Fork — time series
read →train on the earlier period; a shuffled split trains on the future
Time-aware exploration
line plot, rolling statistics, decomposition, ADF with its null stated
Lag and rolling features
explicit shifts, verified by the pattern of leading NaNs
Naive baseline
last observed value, or one season back, reported beside every model
Confidence flag
reasoned from principle, not validated against a finished project
Model building & tuning
read →agreed once, opening with a simple baseline the rest has to beat
Per-model loop
fit, evaluate on train and test, read the gap rather than the two numbers
Compute budget rule
total fits stated out loud before any grid search is proposed
Tuning
scored on the agreed metric, judged on whether the train/test gap shrank
Feature importance
top features reconciled explicitly against what EDA showed
Choosing the final model
the 1% rule and metric conflict, named rather than defaulted
Graded work
read →restated as a point-weighted checklist, divergences named
Reading a rubric
"with comments" means a written decision; separately listed means separately marked
Code quality
unused imports, mid-notebook imports, cells that ran out of order
Academic integrity
explain, structure, debug — the decisions stay with the person submitting
The loop — how a session runs
The step gate
one unit of work, then stop and wait for the real output
Observations blocks
each finding its own headed cell, grounded only in what was reported
Problem-type triage
target column first, then regression, classification, or time series
Exit and entry points
stop after EDA when there was no modelling intent; join at the split with clean data
Two execution modes
paste-ready notebook cells, or code run directly and interpreted as it goes
The HTML report
rebuilt at each section boundary, so there is something readable throughout