Diagnosis — establishing the real picture

Six moves for the front of an engagement: where the business actually stands, where to play, who the customer is, what rivals will do, what's binding growth, and where the money sits. Run before choosing any direction. Each move's firm-specific frameworks are named in references/firm-lenses.md.

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Situation Assessment (situation-assessment)

A fact-based baseline and a sharply framed central question, before anyone proposes a move.

Method: (1) Frame the gap to full potential first — the distance between today's performance and what the business could achieve if its binding constraints were relieved, stated in one sentence and the units that matter (profit, share, base, cash). It governs what counts as material. (2) Frame the question with SCQA. (3) Triangulate performance across three lenses that should agree and rarely do — financial (growth, margin, cash conversion, ROIC vs what assets could yield), market (share, relative growth), operational (cost position, capability); disagreement is itself a finding. (4) Read customer loyalty economics (promoters/passives/detractors; a strong margin on a weak/declining NPS warns the value base is eroding). (5) Read core health (insurgent vs incumbent — frontline closeness, owner mindset, clear mission). (6) Break the blended averages apart by segment/product/geo/channel/cohort — find the few cells that drive profit and the ones that quietly destroy it. (7) Build a MECE issue tree, tagging every node fact / inference / unknown. (8) Sort signal from noise on an impact × certainty 2×2. (9) End every section with a "so what."

Output: a one-page fact base — gap to full potential, central question (SCQA), value read with disagreements flagged, loyalty read, core-health read, de-blended picture (cells not averages), ranked issue tree (tagged), signal vs noise, prioritized unknowns.

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Market Mapping (market-mapping)

A triangulated size, a behavior-based segmentation, the white space, and ranked where-to-play options.

Method: (1) Frame the market as an arena — job × buyer × geography × occasion, not an "industry" label; write what's in/out. (2) Size TAM/SAM/SOM twice — top-down (universe narrowed by penetration/addressability/reach, every multiplier shown) and bottom-up (unit economics built up independently), then triangulate — a 2×+ divergence is a wrong assumption, not rounding; resolve it. (3) Break demand apart by jobs-to-be-done (the job, the outcome measured, the constraint felt), not firmographics. (4) Decompose growth by volume / price-mix / segment shift; separate structural tailwind from share gain. (5) Plot demand strength vs supply quality on a 2×2 — high-demand / weak-supply is the white space (and weak incumbent loyalty makes a segment more open than revenue suggests). (6) Map the profit pool and where it's migrating along the chain (toward platforms/data/outcomes, away from manufacture) — map the vector, not the snapshot. (7) Generate beachhead where-to-play options, each with a right-to-win read (closeness to the core, relative scale/cost, distinctive capability, access). (8) Rank by attractiveness × right-to-win; name the wedge and its repeatable expansion path.

Output: market definition, triangulated size (both builds + reconciliation), de-blended segmentation, growth decomposition, white-space 2×2, profit-migration read, ranked where-to-play options with the lead wedge.

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Customer Segmentation (customer-segmentation)

Decision-useful segments cut on need/value/loyalty, scored for attractiveness vs right-to-win, with a named wedge — not a gallery of personas.

Method: (1) Break the average customer apart — find the dimensions on which customers most differ in what they need, value, and how they buy (reject easy-to-observe axes that don't change behavior). (2) Segment on jobs-to-be-done, value sought (Elements of Value: functional / emotional / life-changing), and loyalty, not firmographics. (3) Test MECE explicitly with edge cases (each customer lands in exactly one segment). (4) Size each (count, revenue pool, growth). (5) Score attractiveness — size, growth, willingness to pay, share-of-wallet headroom, and loyalty economics (a segment of would-be promoters is worth more per customer than its headline revenue). (6) Score right-to-win — distinctive capability fit, relative cost/scale, access, closeness to the core. (7) Plot attractiveness × right-to-win; pick the wedge (high on both) you can win decisively and turn into a referenceable base. (8) Name segments behaviorally; for the wedge, state the value proposition, proof points, and a loyalty-led win signal.

Output: de-blending axes, MECE segmentation (behavioral names, job, value, behavior, size/growth), MECE check, attractiveness × right-to-win placement, the named wedge + second priority + expansion path.

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Competitive Intelligence (competitive-intel)

A model that tells you not just who's strong but what each rival will probably do — and what you'll do back, fast.

Method: (1) Draw the three-ring competitive set — Ring 1 direct, Ring 2 adjacent (one capability/segment away), Ring 3 insurgents/substitutes; force at least two names into the outer rings (teams over-watch Ring 1 and get killed from 2 or 3). (2) Use Porter's Five Forces as structural backdrop only (the profit-pressure field), not the answer. (3) Read each rival insurgent vs incumbent (Founder's Mentality) — it predicts how fast and boldly they'll move, often better than size. (4) Estimate relative cost position via scale and unit economics (who can win a price war, who can't). (5) Read the loyalty franchise (strong revenue but a detractor-heavy base is more vulnerable than its share; deep loyalty holds price). (6) Build a force-ranked capability matrix (no ties) across the winning capabilities; name each rival's edge and gap. (7) Write a behavioral thesis per rival (what it optimizes for, the constraint it can't escape, therefore how it behaves) grounded in signals — pricing, hiring, capex, M&A. (8) Pre-commit a two-speed response to each priority rival's two most likely moves — a fast track (countermove within days, triggered, owned) and a slow track (the durable capability behind it).

Output: three-ring set, insurgent/incumbent read, cost-position ranking, loyalty-franchise read, force-ranked capability matrix, behavioral theses, a pre-committed response plan (move → trigger → owner → fast/slow response).

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Growth Barriers (growth-barriers)

The single binding constraint on growth — distinguished from the loudest complaint in the room — with the arithmetic behind it.

Method: (1) Size the gap to full potential (growth if the best cohorts/segments/motion ran everywhere). (2) Decompose growth arithmetically into new / expansion / churn / contraction; name the largest swing (a "growth problem" is often a retention problem in a sales costume). (3) Break growth apart by segment, cohort, and vintage (newer cohorts decaying faster than older ones at the same age is a structural signal). (4) Date the inflection and line it against what else moved (pricing, competitor entry, channel, product). (5) Build a funnel waterfall and find the largest absolute leak vs benchmark (not the most visible one). (6) Test demand vs loyalty vs cost position — if it's cost position, no marketing fixes it; if loyalty, no new-customer spend fixes it. (7) Read cohort retention/loyalty curves (flat-tailing = durable core; decay to zero = no fit). (8) Five-whys to a structural cause inside the firm's control — the one binding constraint. (9) Second-order: name the next constraint that binds once this is relieved.

Output: full-potential gap, growth decomposition, de-blended break (segment/cohort/vintage cells), inflection date, funnel waterfall, demand-vs-loyalty-vs-cost verdict, the one binding constraint (with the five-whys chain), the single kill-or-confirm analysis, the next constraint.

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Profit Pool Analysis (profit-pool-analysis)

Where the money actually sits along the chain vs where you sit, and where the pool is migrating.

Method: (1) Deconstruct the value chain end to end — every stage from input to end customer, including adjacent stages others capture that you don't touch (the profit hides in a stage the conventional view bundles away). (2) Estimate the revenue pool per stage (industry-wide, not just yours). (3) Estimate the margin pool per stage and multiply for absolute profit — map width (revenue) × depth (margin) = area (profit captured). (4) Locate the deepest pools vs your position — quantify the share of total industry profit you touch; the unclaimed deep pool is the gap to full potential. (5) Read profit migration (direction of travel, leading signals — who's investing where, where the customer relationship and loyalty are concentrating). (6) Explain why each deep pool is deep (scale/unit-cost advantage, structural barrier, customer/data control point, loyalty franchise) — separates defensible from temporary. (7) Draw the strategic move toward the pool you have a right to win (Engine 1 → Engine 2), the capability/scale it needs, and the right-to-win rationale.

Output: value-chain deconstruction, profit-pool map (revenue + margin + absolute per stage), your position vs the pool + gap to full potential, migration read, economic explanation per deep pool, the recommended move with right-to-win.